01 January 2007

Here we go again: the annual review of last year's predictions, and a set of new ones for the new year.

Now, in what's become an ongoing tradition, this is the time of year when I peer into the patented Ted Neward Crystal Ball (TM) (operators are standing by!), see what it tells me about technology trends and ideas for the coming year, and report them to you. The usual disclaimers apply, meaning I'm not getting any sort of endorsement deals to mention anybody's technology here, I'm not speaking for anybody but myself in this, and so on. And, in order to prove that I'm not an analyst group like Forrester or Burton or any of those other yahoos, in a separate post, I'll look over my predictions for 2006 and see how they panned out, thus proving that the patented Ted Neward Crystal Ball (TM) is just as capable of mistakes as any other crystal ball of course, right all the time. :-)

OK, time to face the music and look back at my predictions from last year:

2006 was an interesting year, in that a lot of interesting things happened this year for developers. For the .NET crowd, Visual Studio 2005 and SQL Server 2005 finally became widely available to them (yes, it shipped in 2005 but it took a bit for it to percolate through the community), and NetFX 3 (aka .NET 3.0, aka Indigo/Avalon/Workflow) shipped in Q4, not to mention Vista itself, meaning there was all kinds of new stuff to play with. For the Java crowd, Spring 2.0 shipped, Geronimo 1.0 shipped, and Sun decided to finally open the doors on the JDK (apparently not realizing that a lot of us had already slipped in the back way through the doors marked "SCSL license" and "JRL license" since JDK 1.2...). Meanwhile, Ruby continued to amaze those who'd never seen a dynamic/scripting language before, and Rails continued to amaze developers who'd never seen a VB demo before. More WS-* specs shipped, people started talking about JavaScript Object Notation (JSON), RSS/Atom continued to draw attention in droves, and marketing guys looked for all kinds of places they could hang the Tim O'Reilly-inspired "Web 2.0" meme anywhere they could. And yet, through it all, developers somehow ignored the noise and kept working.

• The hype surrounding Ajax will slowly fade, as people come to realize that there's really nothing new here, just that DHTML is cool again. As Dion points out, Ajax will become a toolbox that you use in web development without thinking that "I am doing Ajax". Just as we don't think about "doing HTML" vs "doing DOM". Well, much as I might have wanted this to take place, it doesn't seem to have happened--Ajax is as much a buzzword (if not more so) than it was in 2005. In fact, it now seems to have grown to the same buzzwordy status as "Web 2.0", in that we're starting to lose sight of it as its acronym originally defined it to be: Asynchronous Javascript And XML. Now people are talking about using JSON, about using it synchronously, and... hey, it's just a matter of time before somebody points out the flaws in Javascript and starts suggesting other dynamic languages for the browser....
• The release of EJB 3 may actually start people thinking about EJB again, but hopefully this time in a more pragmatic and less hype-driven fashion. (Yes, EJB does have its place in the world, folks--it's just a much smaller place than most of the EJB vendors and book authors wanted it to be.) Hah. Fat chance. Though the EJB-bashing wave has slipped to an all-time low, it seems, it's still ready to rear its ugly head any time somebody suggests that there might be something about EJB that doesn't suck. Still, the luster is starting to wear off on Spring, which means that (a) people are starting to look at it critically, rather than taking it for granted as a media darling, and (b) people will start to re-evaluate EJB as a viable technology rather than just demonize it. Maybe.
• Vista will be slipped to 2007, despite Microsoft's best efforts. In the meantime, however, WinFX (which is effectively .NET 3.0) will ship, and people will discover that Workflow (WWF) is by far the more interesting of the WPF/WCF/WWF triplet. Notice that I don't say "powerful" or "important", but "interesting". Here we go: did Vista ship, or not? Officially, Vista was released to manufacturing (RTM'ed), but it's not available to consumers yet, and won't be until later this month or next. WinFX... er, I mean .NET 3.0... er, I mean NetFX3... whatever... shipped at the same time Vista did, though, and developers in the .NET space are beginning to hear more about this thing called "Workflow". It's still a mystery to most, I think, but then so is WCF.
• Scripting languages will hit their peak interest period in 2006; Ruby conversions will be at its apogee, and its likely that somewhere in the latter half of 2006 we'll hear about the first major Ruby project failure, most likely from a large consulting firm that tries to duplicate the success of Ruby's evangelists (Dave Thomas, David Geary, and the other Rubyists I know of from the NFJS tour) by throwing Ruby at a project without really understanding it. In other words, same story, different technology, same result. By 2007 the Ruby Backlash will have begun. Has the Ruby backlash begun? Hard to say--certainly there are those who've been rolling out Rails apps that have found problems with deploying Rails, but for now Rails--and thus Ruby--remain the media darling. Maybe by 2008.
• Interest in building languages that somehow bridge the gap between static and dynamic languages will start to grow, most likely beginning with E4X, the variant of ECMAScript (Javascript to those of you unfamiliar with the standards) that integrates XML into the language. Bah--this was an easy one to call. E4X hasn't yet really gained a lot of traction, but that may be because nobody's really talking about it or writing about it. That part might just require more time, or it may never happen--depends on how badly developers want an easier way to work with XML. Suffice it to say, we'll see lots of E4X-like features show up in other languages as we go; some have already shown up in other languages, such as Flex's ActionScript, for example.
• Java developers will start gaining interest in building rich Java apps again. (Freely admit, this is a long shot, but the work being done by the Swing researchers at Sun, not least of which is Romain Guy, will by the middle of 2006 probably be ready for prime-time consumption, and there's some seriously interesting sht in there.)* Well, you can ask Scott Delap if you're not convinced, but certainly there's been a growing interest in building Eclipse RIAs. Swing (justifiably or not) still remains in the doghouse, however.
• Somebody at Microsoft starts seriously hammering on the CLR team to support continuations. Talk emerges about supporting it in the 4.0 (post-WinFX) release. I have no empirical or anecdotal proof, but the rumors abound...
• Effective Java (2nd Edition) will ship. (Hardly a difficult prediction to make--Josh said as much in the Javapolis interview I did with him and Neal Gafter.) Whoops. Apparently Josh is busy.
• Effective .NET will ship. Pragmatic XML Services will ship. Whoops. Apparently I was busy, too.
• JDK 6 will ship, and a good chunk of the Java community self-proclaimed experts and cognoscente will claim it sucks. It did ship, and many did claim it sucks. The coolness of JSR 223 (the scripting support) definitely worked to offset a lot of the cries-of-suckiness, though the last-second dropping of the data-mapping capabilities specified in JDBC 4.0 (WTF, Sun?!?) caught a lot of us by (unhappy) surprise. It also raises the question as to efficacy of the JCP documents when Sun feels completely comfortable changing them at the Very Last Second....
• Java developers will seriously begin to talk about what changes we want/need to Java for JDK 7 ("Dolphin"). Lots of ideas will be put forth. Hopefully most will be shot down. With any luck, Joshua Bloch and Neal Gafter will still be involved in the process, and will keep tight rein on the more... aggressive... ideas and turn them into useful things that won't break the spirit of the platform. Well, witness the closures debate between Josh on the one hand, and Neal on the other, and you can clearly see that they're still involved in the process, though not in the manner I'd envisioned. That said, though, the JDK 7 discussions are already ramping up; look for an interview I did with Neal Gafter at Javapolis this year to show up on Parleys.com in the very near future, in which we talked about this exact subject. Some interesting ideas will emerge out of this debate, both for JDK 7 and releases beyond...
• My long-shot hope, rather than prediction, for 2006: Sun comes to realize that the Java platform isn't about the language, but the platform, and begin to give serious credence and hope behind a multi-linguistic JVM ecosystem. Wow. Witness the acquisition of the JRuby pair by Sun, and the scripting support in JDK 6, and maybe, just maybe, I can claim a point on this one.
• My long-shot dream: JBoss goes out of business, the JBoss source code goes back to being maintained by developers whose principal interest is in maintaining open-source projects rather than making money, and it all gets folded together with what the Geronimo folks are doing. In other words, the open-source community stops the infighting and starts pulling oars in the same direction at the same time. For once. Well, you can't win them all.

Not sure how that leaves the score, but there you go....

Now, without further ado... here's 2007's list.

• General: Analysts will call 2007 the Year of the {Something}, where I bet that {Something} will be either "ESB" or "SOA". They will predict that companies adopting {Something} will save millions, if not billions, if only they rush to implement it now. They will tag this with a probability of .8 in order to CYA in case {Something} doesn't pan out. (Yes, I've read far too many of these reports--I'm personally convinced that each of the analyst companies has a template buried away in their basement that they pull out each time they need a new one, and they just do a global search-and-replace of "{Something}" with whatever the technology du jour happens to be.)
• .NET: Thousands of developers will horribly abuse WPF in ways that can only be called nightmarish, thus once again proving the old adage that "just because you can doesn't mean you should" still holds. WPF's capabilities with video will prove, in many ways, to be the modern equivalent to the "blink" tag in HTML. This will provide some author with a golden opportunity: "WPF Applications That Suck". Alan Cooper will re-release "About Face", updated to include WPF UI elements.
• .NET: Thousands of developers will look to Redmond for an answer to the question, "Which should I use? BizTalk, Windows Workflow, or SQL Server Service Broker?", and get no clear answer.
• Windows: Microsoft will try, once again, to kill off the abomination that was called the Windows 95/98/Me line of operating systems, and will once again have to back off as industry outcries of protest (on behalf of little old ladies who are the only ones left running Windows 95/98/Me and probably haven't turned their machine on in months, at least not since the grandkids last visited) go ballistic.
• Windows: Ditto for Visual Basic 6.0, except now the outcry will be on behalf of developers who aren't capable of learning anything new. Sun will use the resulting PR to announce Project YAVKRWMITT (Yet Another VB Killer Really We Mean It This Time, pronounced "YAV-kermit") on java.net. Meanwhile, efforts to make CLASSPATH into something a VB 6 guy actually has a prayer of understanding will go quietly ignored.
• Java: JSR 277 will continue to churn along, and once the next draft ships, publicly nobody will like what we produce, though quietly everybody will admit it's a far cry better than what we have now, and when it ships in JDK 7 will be adopted widely and quietly.
• Java: Thousands of new ideas and proposals to extend the Java language in various ways will flood into the community, now that developers can start hacking on it for themselves thanks to the OpenJDK. Only a small fraction of these will ever get beyond the concept stage, and maybe one or two will actually be finished and released to the Web for consideration by the community and the JCP. Thousands more Java developers craving Alpha-Geek status will stick a "Hello, world" message into the compiler's startup sequence, then claim "experienced with modifying the OpenJDK Java compiler" on their resume and roundly criticize Java in one way or another by saying, "Well, I've looked at the code, and let me tell you....".
• .NET: Somewhere, a developer will realize that SQL Server 2005 can be a SOAP/WSDL XML service endpoint, and open it up as a private back-channel for his application to communicate with the database through the firewall "for performance reasons" (meaning, "So I can avoid having to talk to the app server in between my web server and my database"). With any luck, the DBA will kill him and hide the body before anybody can find and exploit it.
• General: Yet Another Virus That's Microsoft's Fault will rip through the Internet, and nobody will notice that the machines affected are the ones that aren't routinely administered or receive updates/patches. Companies will threaten Microsoft with million-dollar lawsuits, yet will fire none of their system administrators who lovingly lavish whole days tuning their Linux IRC servers yet leave the Windows Exchange Server still running Windows NT 4.0.
• General: Interest in JSON will escalate wildly, hyped as the "natural replacement for XML" in building browser-to-server connections, owing to its incredible simplicity in expressing "object" data. Folks, JSON is a useful format, but it's not a replacement for XML (nor is XML a replacement for it, either). What made XML so popular was not is hierarchical format (Lord above, that's probably the worst part of it, from where we as developers sit), nor its HTML-like simplified-SGML syntax. What made XML interesting was the fact that everybody lined up behind it--Microsoft, Sun, BEA, Oracle, IBM, there's not a big vendor that didn't express its undying love and devotion to XML. I sincerely doubt JSON will get that kind of rallying effect. (And if you're going to stand there and suggest that JSON is better because its simpler and therefore more approachable for developers to build support for themselves, quite honestly, I thought we were trying to get out of developers building all this communications infrastructure--isn't that what the app servers and such taught us?)
• General: Interest in Java/.NET interopability will rise as companies start to realize that (a) the WS-* "silver bullet" isn't, (b) ESB, XML, and SOA are just acronyms and won't, in of themselves, solve all the integration problems, and (c) we have lots of code in both Java and .NET that need to talk to each other. This may be a self-serving prediction, but I got a LOT of interest towards the end of this year in the subject, so I'm guessing that this is going to only get bigger as the WS-* hype continues to lose its shine in the coming years.
• Ruby: Interest in Java/Ruby and .NET/Ruby interoperability is going to start quietly making its presence felt, as people start trying to wire up their quick-to-write "stovepipe" RAILS apps against other systems in their production data center, and find that Ruby really is a platform of its own. RubyCLR or JRuby may be part of the answer here, but there's likely some hidden mines there we haven't seen yet.
• Languages: A new meme will get started: "JavaScript was that thing, that little toy language, that you used to do stuff in the HTML browser. ECMAScript, on the other hand, is a powerful and flexible dynamic programming language suitable for use in all sorts of situations." Pass it on. If you get it, don't tell anybody else. (Don't laugh--it worked for "The Crying Game".) It's the only way JavaScript ECMAScript will gain widespread acceptance and shed the "toy" label that JavaScript has.
• Languages: Interest in functional-object hybrid languages will grow. Scala, Jaskell, F#, and others not-yet-invented will start to capture developers' attention, particularly when they hear the part about functional languages being easier to use in multi-core systems because it encourages immutable objects and discourages side effects (meaning we don't have to worry nearly so much about writing thread-safe code).
• Languages: Interest in Domain-specific languages will reach a peak this year, but a small backlash will begin next year. Meanwhile, more and more developers will realize that one man's "DSL" is another man's "little language", something UNIX has been doing since the early 70's. This will immediately take the shine off of DSLs, since anything that we did in the 70's must be bad, somehow. (Remember disco?)
• General: Rails will continue to draw developers who want quick-fix solutions/technologies, and largely that community will ignore the underlying power of Ruby itself. The draw will start to die down once Rails-esque feature ideas get folded into Java toolkits. (Rails will largely be a non-issue with the .NET community, owing to the high-productivity nature of the drag-and-drop interface in Visual Studio.)
• Java: Interface21 is going to start looking like a "big vendor" alongside BEA and IBM. I was talking with some of the I21 folks in Aarhus, Denmark at JAOO, and one of them casually mentioned that they were looking at a Spring 2.1 release somewhere in mid-2008. Clearly Spring is settling into eighteen-month major-version release cycles like all the big (meaning popular), established software systems have a tendency to do. This is both a good thing and a bad thing--it's good in that it means that Spring is now becoming an established part of the Java landscape and thus more acceptable to use in production environments, but it's bad in that Spring is now going to face the inevitable problem all big vendors face: trying to be all things to all people. This is dangerous, both for Interface21 and the people relying on Spring, largely because it means that Spring faces a very real future of greater complexity (and there are those, myself included, who believe that Spring is too complex already, easily on par with the complexity seen in EJB, POJOs notwithstanding).
• General: Marc Fleury will get a golden parachute from Red Hat (at their request and to their immense relief), and hopefully will retire to his own small island (might I suggest Elba, la petite corporal?) to quietly enjoy his millions. A shame that the people who did most of the real work on JBoss won't see a commensurate reward, but that's the way the business world works, I guess.
• General: Some company will get millions to build an enterprise product on the backs of RSS and/or Atom, thus proving that VCs are just as stupid and just as vulnerable to hype now as they were back in the DotCom era.
• General: Somebody will attempt to use the phrase "Web 2.0" in a serious discussion, and I will be forced to kill them for attempting to use a vague term in a vain effort to sound intelligent.
• Web clients: Ajax will start to lose its luster when developers realize the power of Google Maps isn't in Ajax, but in the fact that it's got some seriously cool graphics and maps. (Or, put another way, when developers realize that Ajax alone won't make their apps as cool as Google Maps, that's it's the same old DHTML from 1998, the hype will start to die down.)
• XML: Somebody, somewhere, will realize that REST != HTTP. He will be roundly criticized by hordes of HTTP zealots, and quietly crawl away to go build simpler and more robust systems that use transports other than HTTP.
• XML: Somebody, somewhere, will read the SOAP 1.2 specification. H.P. Lovecraft once suggested, loosely paraphrased, the the day Man understands the nature of the universe, he will either be driven into gibbering insanity, or flee back into ignorance in self-preservation. Ditto for the day Man reads the SOAP 1.2 spec and realizes that SOAP is, in fact, RESTful.
• Security: The US Government will continue its unbelievable quest to waste money on "security" by engaging in yet more perimeter security around airports and other indefensible locations, thus proving that none of them have bothered to read Schneier and learn that real security is a three-part tuple: prevention, detection, and response.
• Security: Thousands of companies will follow in the US Government's footsteps by doing exactly the same thing. (Folks, you can't solve all your problems with cryptography, no matter how big the key size--you just end up with the basic problem of where to store the keys, and no, burying them inside the code isn't going to hide them effectively.)
• Security: More and more rootkits-shipping-with-a-product will be discovered. We used to call it "getting close to the metal", now it's a "rootkit". With great power comes great responsibility... and, as many consumers have already discovered, with great power also comes a tendency to create greater instability...
• General: Parrot will ship a 1.0 release. Oh, wait, hang on, sorry, I bumped into the crystal ball and accidentally set it to 2017.
• .NET: Microsoft will ship Orcas (NetFX 3.5). (Sorry, crystal ball's still set on 2017. Trying to fix it...)
• .NET: Vista will surpass Windows XP in market penetration. (Let's see, almost got it set back to 2007, bear with me... There. Got it.)
• General: I will blog more than I did this year. (Hell, I couldn't blog less, even if I tried.)
• General: Pragmatic XML Services, Pragmatic .NET Project Automation and Effective .NET will ship. (Wait, is the crystal ball still on 2017...?)

Same time, next year....

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Tags: predictions  

Last modified 01 January 2007

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