02 January 2017

It's that time of the year again, when I make predictions for the upcoming year. As has become my tradition now for nigh-on a decade, I will first go back over last years' predictions, to see how well I called it (and keep me honest), then wax prophetic on what I think the new year has to offer us.

As per previous years, I'm giving myself either a +1 or a -1 based on a purely subjective and highly-biased evaluational criteria as to whether it actually happened (or in some cases at least started to happen before 31 Dec 2016 ended).

Bear with me for a moment, though. This is just too good.

In 2015...

... I said:

Microsoft acquires Xamarin.

Oh, baby. Off by a year. I'm should go back and give myself a +1 for this one. It was really surprising that they hadn't. As a matter of fact, if Microsoft had listened to me and done it in 2015, they'd probably have saved themselves a TON of money compared to what they actually paid for Xamarin in 2016. But they made the acquisition, Xamarin is now part of the Microsoft family, and (finally!) .NET developers have access to the Xamarin toolchain and can build native iOS and Android apps without having to shell out additional cash to do so. 'Bout time, Microsoft. (I suspect this had everything to do with Satya, to be honest.)

OK, gloat over.

In 2016...

... I said:

Nine up (ten, if we count my Xamarin prediction from 2015), four down. Not bad. But now, we move on to the more interesting part of the post: 2017.

2017 Predictions

The calendar year 2017 is going to be a wild one for the tech industry, largely owing to the rather large orange elephant in the room---Donald Trump's election to President of the United States is a huge wildcard whose randomness simply cannot be understated. The man thrives on being unpredictable, and like most industries, the tech industry (for all that it cherishes "innovation" and "disruption") thrives on predictability. His collection of "tech titans" at Trump Tower last month yielded absolutely zero positive traction that I can see, and I suspect that the various corporate tech leaders (Nadella, Bezos, Cook, etc) are all looking at him right now the way humans do a rogue elephant---he could be good for them, so long as he doesn't go wild and start tramping everything in his path out of spite, anger, fear, or any other of a half- dozen emotions. There's no prediction here, though---just a "wow, this is an X-factor" that in turn makes predictions that much harder.

But on that note....

On a personal note, several predictions come to mind:

Happy Holidays, and thanks for reading!

Tags: predictions  

Last modified 02 January 2017